2014 LOOKS LIKE AN EL NINO YEAR

2014 El Nino

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml

If the eastern Pacific surface sea temps continue 7 to 9 months warmer than 0.5 deg C, it is called “El Nino Conditions”. If it lasts more than 9 months, it is called “El Nino Episode”. While El Nino creates high level shearing winds and can reduce hurricane development in the Atlantic Basin, a few hurricanes may develop. This occurred in 1983 when Hurricane Alicia struck the Houston, TX area, and in 1992 when Cat 5 Hurricane Andrew struck Homestead, Fl.

2014-05-07_152706

The hurricane season begins on May 15 in the eastern Pacific, earlier than the June 1 date in the Atlantic Basin. You can see why when you look at the warmer surface sea temps there.

The western Caribbean Sea and waters around Cuba and southeastern Florida are closer to us and may be the location of the first 2014 tropical storm if atmospheric conditions become favorable.

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