UPDATE: 2 PM Monday Ocotber 8. The weak low north of Hispaniola Sunday has moved northwest and is centered about 150 miles east southeast of Nassau. It should remain weak and drift northward. Middle and upper level wind shear is pulling heaviest showers to the east of the center.

A weak front over northeast Florida is mostly dry. Clusters of showers mainly over extreme southeast Georgia and along the Gulf coast will bring this week’s only rain here by evening. We will see drier air and cooler nights this rest of this week as the front moves to southern Florida and high pressure to our north brings us a taste of autumn.

This is the time of year that cold snaps bring the first frosts and freezes to much of the U.S. Jacksonville’s earliest freeze was on November 3, 1954, while in most years the first freeze varies between the last week of November and New Year’s Day. The average date of Jacksonville’s average first freeze is December 6; however, local effects such as the urban heat island and the moderating effect of the river, lakes and ocean delays, and in some years, the occurrence of a freeze.

Repeated cold snaps can cause the formation of late season tropical storms to be farther south over the warmer waters of the Caribbean Sea. Over the next few months, dry polar air ususally reduces our shower/thunderstorm activity to the brief downpours of a passing cold front, or a rainy day or two from a Gulf frontal low pressure system. El Nino winters have more rainy days than La Nina ones. Latest reports from NOAA’s National Climate Prediction Center indicate the eastern Pacfic warming has decreased so that the next few months will not be an El Nino, nor will it be a La Nina. It should be ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) neutral.



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