The east Pacific warming did not continue equal or greater than +0.5 C through the three-month deadline to qualify for an El Nino.

After two consecutive La Nina fall and winters, this year appears to be shaping up for neutral ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) conditions, neither El Nino nor La Nina. For this reason, we will mainly monitor the behavior of the atmosphere over the western hemisphere and the Atlantic ocean, which includes the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

Since ERNESTO crossed the Caribbean and Yucatan to hit Mexico, most tropical systems have been over the central and eastern Atlantic. These may have caused a cooling effect on some of the tropical Atlantic waters, but there is still very warm water over the western Atlantic to provide sufficient fuel to fire up a few more tropical storms during the last two months of this hurricane season.

Water temperatures from The Weather Channel


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