EL NINO AND THE REST OF THE 2012 HURRICANE SEASON

El Nino conditions are projected to begin shortly after the September 10 climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. The shearing effect of upper winds frequently reduces the development of tropical storms.


The diagram depicting the different ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) models indicates the possibility that the El Nino may end this winter. El Nino winters are usually accompanied by above normal rainfall and severe thunderstorms for the Gulf states and Florida. This could mean better news for our winter/early spring tornado season.

With an El Nino, we will probably observe a decrease in the number of hurricanes during the remainder of the 2012 season. This has certainly turned out to be a much more active season than previously forecast. There have been thirteen storms before the climatological peak of this season on September 10. With El Nino conditions, I would think the remainder of the season should have only half that number.

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