WATCHING FOR STORM NUMBER 4 TO FORM IN THE GULF

This would be named DEBBY, the first time a 4h storm forms before July 1.

Last month, Tropical Storms ALBERTO and BERYL jumped the gun on the 2012 Tropical Storm season. When CHRIS formed this week, it became only the 6th time over the past 160 years that 3 tropical storms have formed before July 1. There has never been a 4th tropical storm this early in the season.

It appears now that we will soon see Tropical Storm DEBBY form off the coast of Yucatan in the Gulf of Mexico. We will be looking at the possibility of it affecting Florida this weekend or the first part of next week. Winds associated with a cold front over the eastern U.S. may steer it across the peninsula into the Atlantic, but we will also watch for the possibility of the front lifting away, leaving this storm stranded in the Gulf because of a high pressure behind the cold front blocking its progress. The computer models may determine this outcome, but I’m not going to count my chickens before they hatch! Stay tuned.

An interesting fact about hurricane seasons is that each one is unique. Storm formation is related to so many variables, such as location, mid-latitude troughs, the Bermuda high, Atlantic sea temperatures and Pacific El Ninos and La Ninas, that we often stand in awe by the end of each season noting the things that had never happened before. For example, July is often the month that there is a lull in tropical storm formation. But in 2005, we watched storm after storm develop that reached an unprecedented a total of 5 tropical storms that month, way before the peak of the season that usually occurs the second week of September.

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6 Responses to “WATCHING FOR STORM NUMBER 4 TO FORM IN THE GULF”


  1. 1 Vicky Wilson June 22, 2012 at 5:51 pm

    George, We got a lot of rain from Beryl, If this one hits, how much more rain do you think we could get? Also will it cause more problems for areas that have not dried out yet?

    • 2 geotv4 June 23, 2012 at 12:32 am

      There’s no way to tell who will get rain heavier than Beryl from the new storm. Beryl came right across northeast Florida. It’s too early to tell where the next storm will track. It may be mainly along the Gulf coast, or south and central Florida, or eventually here. That makes it only one chance in 3 that it will be here. But how long around here is another question. Beryl stalled just west of here for several days. We won’t be able to tell what the next storm will do until it forms and starts moving.

  2. 3 Vickie June 22, 2012 at 6:54 pm

    Hi George. So glad you’re on this one. I don’t have a good feeling, but I feel better knowing I can look at your Blog for reliable info. You are my weatherman and always will be…Love you.

    • 4 geotv4 June 22, 2012 at 7:21 pm

      Thank you Vickie. June 25th is my 57th wedding anniversary. We had a thunderstorm when we were married 57 years ago. You can be sure I’ll be watching the next storm over the next few days.

  3. 5 Bill Hudson June 23, 2012 at 2:57 am

    Hi George,

    The last entry on John’s blog was dated 31 JAN 2012!! Please pass this along to him. Jeff Master’s blog had this link: http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=21.71352&lon=-85.54889&zoom. Provided a nice map of 96L interest area along with various reporting station temps and wind information. Would have been better if surface pressure data was included.

    Here is another link, courtesy of Masters:

    smn.cna.mx/index.php?option=com_content&view

    This one, hopefully, will provide Mexican radar stations.

    Long time follower of Channel 4’s weather crew.

    Best regards,

    Bill Hudson


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