11 AM ANALYSIS OF BERYL 125 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE

Subtropical storm BERYL grew stronger this morning over the Gulf Stream.

We’re still under a Tropical Storm warning, but it looks like the strongest winds late tonight and early Monday will be from just north of Jacksonville and Nassau county to Fernandina and the Georgia coastal counties. The eastern periphery of the circulation can remain rather strong as long as it can feed off the warm Gulf Stream waters about 60 miles offshore.

Beachgoers on Memorial Day should beware of rip currents and rough seas, especially along the Georgia-Carolina coast. We’ve had difficulty forecasting rainfall amounts because of BERYL’s being only a half-breed tropical storm, which we call subtropical. In the vicinity of the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream, there has been a 50-50 chance that it could become a true Tropical Storm (still less than Hurricane strength) before making landfall.

Rainfalls can varying greatly, as John Gaughan as explained in his storm reports. It is similar to the many scenarios with rain showers and thunderstorms. They may have only isolated places with large rain total while many other places receive light showers or practically none. With BERYL, places farther inland may recceive only and inch or less. Places near I-95 and Highway 301 may get two to four inches by Monday noon. Greater totals can occur either with “training” of showers (a series of miltiple showers across the same place) as long as the low pressure circulation is over our region, or if the remnants of BERYL remain in the same place for more than a day. In that case, more than four or five inches may accumulate.

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