BIG QUESTION: WHERE WILL IRENE STRIKE?

Hurricane Irene looks as bad as DORA ('64), but could turn north like FLOYD ('99)

PREPARE, PREPARE, PREPARE! If this one remains over the Atlantic before striking our coast, it will be worse than hurricane DORA in 1964. We could lose power for more than a week, rain-swollen streams and rivers along with a storm surge along the coast could create record flooding, and worst of all, lives could be lost.If you live in a flood zone, make plans to move to a safer location in our area before Friday. If you plan to leave the beaches and city to travel well inland, Wednesday may be too late to travel. Remember, people from south and central Florida may already be filling our highways by midweek.

I have again shown the possible changes that can take place in this hurricane’s track. The end of these tracks are in the cone of uncertainty 4 to 5 days out where the NHC’s average forecast error has been 200 to 250 miles. In 2004 when Katrina was approaching south Florida, the NHC 4 and 5 day forecast had Katrina hitting the Florida panhandle and moving into Alabama and Georgia. We all know that it struck Mississippi east of New Orleans. Don’t bet that their storm forecast is off this time with your life!

Finally, my thoughts on IRENE, which is expected to be a much stronger hurricane by skirting much of the moutainous terrain of Hispaniola are as follows:

1. If IRENE takes a jog to the left, it would probably be a category 2 hurricane over south Florida and weaken to a category 1 by the time it reaches the Orlando and Gainesville area. After that, it would be reduced to tropical storm strength as it continues over land. Isolated tornadoes and some flooding could be expected in some places.

2. If IRENE remains mainly over Atlantic waters before hitting land, it could grow to a category 3 (major) hurricane. With winds up to 125 mph, the destruction and debris from downed trees and properties could paralyze travel in parts of the city for one or 2 weeks.

3. If IRENE remains more than 100 miles offshore and heads north, we would receive wind gusts near hurricane force at our beaches, but inland winds would be no higher 50 mph. Rip currents and dangerous surf would be accompanied by some beach erosion.

If you evacuate or leave town, remember to notify friends and family where you will be before hand. Communication may be very difficult after the storm.

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7 Responses to “BIG QUESTION: WHERE WILL IRENE STRIKE?”


  1. 1 wayne August 22, 2011 at 3:08 pm

    the economy is fixing to rise

  2. 3 Sandra Ricks August 22, 2011 at 3:46 pm

    I’m counting on you George. I remember when I was 18 and you were the onbly forecaster to pinpoint Dora’s landfall. Keep me posted. You are still the best!

    • 4 geotv4 August 23, 2011 at 1:33 am

      Thanks. I afraid another storm like Dora would cause a lot more destruction. There are so many more people and houses here now.

  3. 5 persuasionpdp (@persuasionpdp) August 23, 2011 at 3:55 am

    so george in your opinion not professional instint about the huurricane were do you think it would end up i think its going to lead away from us well i hope so….

  4. 6 wiley smith August 23, 2011 at 11:49 am

    George,
    I just turned 60 sir. I remember you from way back and i have always trusted your jugdement and forcast. These young guns could learn from you ,the best.


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