A model looks at possible tracks a storm may take as long as it exists.

The earth’s atmosphere contains many features that can cause uncertainties in the realm of hurricane forecasting. There are many computer models that project the course of real, or potential, storms during the hurricane season. It is important to remember a particular storm may encounter an adverse environment that can negate the model’s prediction before it completes the path depicted in the model.

These conditions may be changes in upper level wind (shearing or non-shearing) conditions, variations in converging or diverging winds at different levels, or interaction with other systems such as fronts, troughs, ridges, etc.

The “NHC” (National Hurricane Center) models have smaller errors than any of the other individual models shown. The NHC forecast combines the models with forecaster experience.



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