A beautiful storm-free weekend for our coasts as rains exit the northeast U.S.

The 2010 hurricane season is winding down to its last two months with southwest shearing winds over several of the northern tropical regions reducing the storm threat here for the time being. While our ocean temperatures are beginning to cool a degree or so each day, parts of the lower Gulf, the Caribbean, and the southern regions of the tropical Atlantic will remain ripe for tropical storm development as a series of tropical waves continue to track westward.

The long range GFS computer forecasts between September 14 and September for a large low pressure to form in the Caribbean around October 1 did not pan out. Right now pressures are low around the Bahama Islands, but the upper level southwest shearing winds that dissipated Nicole are still there making tropical storm formations unlikely.

This is an example of the uncertainties involved with tropical storm forecasts more than 48 hours in the future. For this reason, the National Hurricane Center does not issue watches and warnings for an area more than 2 days in advance.



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