HEAVIEST WEATHER FAR FROM STORM CENTER

The stormiest weather is 250 - 300 miles southeast of TD 16's center.

The tropical depression is having trouble reaching tropical storm intensity (39+ mph). The stormiest weather is over Jamaica, which is far removed from the depression center that is approaching Cuba’s southern coast.

The depression, or possibly Nicole, will be encountering strong southwesterly shear upon reaching the southern tip of the Florida peninsula early Wednesday afternoon.

The dry air over the Florida panhandle and the Gulf of Mexico being entrained into the western side of the storm will cause a sharp contrast between sunny skies on Florida’s Gulf coast and the heavy downpours on the Atlantic side.

As the storm accelerates northward east of Daytona and Jacksonville Beach Wednesday night, it begin to lose tropical characteristics as it merges with a cold front near the Carolina coast on Thursday.

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