“NICOLE” TO RACE NORTHWARD OVER GULF STREAM WATERS

If it becomes NICOLE, most of it will pass well east of the Jacksonville area.

The center locations will not show you where the strongest winds and rain are to occur. The winds on the east side of the storm moving northward at 20 mph will have winds 40 mph higher than the north winds to the west of the center. That’s because the forward motion of 20 mph is added to it’s 40 mph circulation to create 60 mph winds on the east side, well away from our coast.

Conversely, the 20 mph motion of the storm northward on the west side is subtracted from the 40 mph circulation reducing the winds on the west side to just 20 mph. That is true only if there are no rain squalls
circulating around to the west side of the storm, which can cause a higher wind gust.

Tropical Depression #16 is a very strange storm because of the upper level shearing and due to the proximity of a cold front over Florida that may reduce the tropical nature of the storm to a half-breed, called a subtropical storm. If this reaches storm intensity, it’s lifetime will be only 48 hours due to shearing and its merging with the front off our coast.

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