COLD FRONT MAY REDUCE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT

The steamy Caribbean may produce NICOLE, but the cold front underneath a shearing jet stream may keep it from becoming a hurricane.

The next tropical system developing in the Caribbean may be a big rain-maker downstate, but drier air behind a cold front that will stall over north Florida this week should reduce the storm’s impact here. Once the storm connects with the frontal trough and the jet stream above it, it could reach New England by Friday evening.

The computer models depict a very unsettled pattern over the storm forming waters of the Caribbean and eastern Gulf of Mexico for the first two weeks of October. They show a second storm trailing “Nicole” east of Miami this week that will race northeastward over the open Atlantic this weekend.

As with all long range forecasts, they are always subject to modification or change with time. The atmosphere is especially volatile over tropical waters during an active hurricane season. For this reason, we depend on NOAA’s National Hurricane Center for watches, warnings, and monitoring of severe tropical weather.

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