STORM DEVELOPMENT UNLIKELY

Shower areas are poorly organized. Chances of storm development are less than 50%.

Drier air in advance of two tropical disturbances make tropical storm development unlikely through Friday. The tropical waves may transport some heavy downpours as they proceed toward the west-northwest around 10-15 mph. A dry upper level low pressure system over the Atlantic east of Florida has been creating unfavorable conditions for the weak circulation over the southern Bahamas, however it will transform into an easterly flow to enhance the lower level westward movement of downpours in the central and lower Bahama Islands, taking them across central and south Florida into the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. The chance of becoming a tropical storm has decreased from 60% to 40% on Wednesday. The weak low over the Bay of Campeche has only a 30% chance for storm development before reaching the coast of east Mexico.

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