MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WINDS

One of three tropical waves has a chance of storm development


Waves in the flow of tropical westerlies cause areas of passing rain showers. Upper level low pressure has sinking air currents that dry the atmosphere, thereby suppressing the rain activity. Upper level high pressure produces diverging upper level winds that enhance the lifiting action associated with tropical downpours. Presently, there is virtually no storm-producing boost in the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico tropical waves. Consequently, there the chance of tropical storm developments there are near 0 percent.

The only wave that is enhanced enough by upper level divergence is the one producing heavy downpours over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. But for the next 48 hours the chance of tropical storm development from system that tropical wave is only 20 percent.

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