TROPICAL WAVE AND HEAVY RAINS

Deep layer moisture and diverging upper winds make for big rains.

While the Louisiana low fizzles, and much of the western Gulf of Mexico is having dry weather, deep layer moisture is being drawn upward by high level diverging winds over the western Caribbean and the Yucatan peninsula. As the tropical wave moves towards the east coast of Mexico by Thursday, the potential for tropical storm development is marginal (30%). If a storm develops, it appears that its track will be similar to ALEX.

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