The National Hurricane Center gives a 60% chance of BONNIE forming by morning.

The upper level shearing winds over the Gulf low we talked about 2 days ago have decreased. For this reason, the chance of BONNIE forming before the circulation moves inland Tuesday morning has now increased to 60%. This is not good news for the Louisians coast. Any increase in the southeasterly winds will cause higher tides along the coast, driving the oil spill farther inland. The only bright side is the fact that this will be a short-lived storm as it leaves the warm, oily Gulf waters by late Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the tropical wave over the western Caribbean continues to move northwestward toward Yucatan. Upper level winds are continuing to become more favorable for tropical storm development by late this week when the system will be over the warm waters of the western Gulf of Mexico.



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