WATCHING WAVE IN CARIBBEAN

Strong convection in Caribbean on east side of tropical wave

Slow development of a cyclonic circulation in the Caribbean is expected over the next few days. Even though it has already ingested a great deal of precipitable water, the probability of becoming a tropical storm within the next 48 hours is 20%.

Elsewhere, a weak low pressure in the north central Gulf of Mexico will drift westward over the next few days. See my previous post on this blog for an analysis of this disturbance.

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