2009-11-06_164309As Depression IDA exits Honduras and enters the very warm waters of the western Caribbean, it will rapidly become a tropical storm through the weekend. It will continue to move north northwest into the southern Gulf of Mexico by Monday.
As the cool high pressure slides eastward into the Atlantic, an upper level trough and a surface cold front around Tuesday/Wednesday will draw IDA north to northeast (A on map) over cooler Gulf waters. This track may only be temporary. Residents on Florida’s Gulf coast should keep in touch with the storm’s behavior on these days.
After Wednesday, a blocking high pressure system will move across the eastern US. The invasion of cooler air with northeast to east winds will either convert IDA into a subtropical low on the front, or the storm may weaken into rainbands on the remnant circulation on Thursday and Friday which may shift to a westerly track (B on the map).
Unforeseen developments next week can change parts of this scenario. Remember that the latest official advisories of the National Hurricane Center and local National Weather Service offices are always the final word when it comes to tropical weather threats!


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