In 1984, LILI became a hurricane on December 20, the latest Atlantic one on record!

Around the first day of winter, December 21, the advances of polar air into the tropics significantly reduce the conditions favorable for hurricane development. In 1984, a subtropical low formed in the Atlantic along a frontal boundary. The low separated from the weakening front and gradually drifted southward to became hurricane LILI. The storm maintained 80 mph winds for 3 days until winds lessened to tropical storm strength north of Puerto Rico. The remains of LILI make landfall on Hispaniola on Christmas Eve.

Warmer than normal Atlantic waters are associated with more active hurricane seasons.

We are now in the warm phase of the multi-decadal Atlantic Ocean temperature oscillations which began around 1995. The previous warm oscillation occurred from 1930 through 1960. If this phase runs as long as the previous one, we passed the halfway point of this one around 2010. It is believed the warmer Atlantic waters, combined with African monsoons are the main cause of increased hurricane activity over the Atlantic Basin.

When seasonal predictions are made, they are compared to the “normal” number of tropical storms; however, what is called normal is really an average that changes over the years. From 1980 to 2010, the storm/hurricane/major numbers were 12/6/3. But those numbers since 1995 have increased to 15/8/4 because of increases in the number of storms. Some studies have pointed out that the numbers have increased over the past decade and a half because more relatively weak and short-lived storms have been detected that were unnoticed in prior years.

Predictions for the 2012 season will be made from time to time before June 1, but the answer to when we will get hit cannot be determined until several days before the storm is out there. And we can always hope it won’t be for several mmore years. The best thing about hurricanes is that it is not like a tornado. We have time to prepare, and get out of its way if necessary.

Too early for know for the hurricane season, but La Nina frequently means a dry winter for Florida.

The La Nina pattern of the east Pacific often is related to less winter frontal storms from the Gulf and across Florida. In some years these storms track northeastward allowing milder winter temperatures for Florida. However, the past two winters have seen the Arctic Oscillation send bitter cold and heavy snows across the northeastern U.S. A report from the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, CO indicates a rapid freezing under way over eastern Canada and Greenland. With a warm Pacific jet stream pushing northward into Alaska (remember the Big Bering Sea storm this October), a return surge southward may be setting the stage for some wicked winter weather for parts of our Atlantic seaboard.

There were many Atlantic storms, but only Hurricane IRENE impacted the U.S.

The first eight storms of the 2011 hurricane season failed to reach hurricane intensity. The ninth became hurricane IRENE which impacted the northeast Caribbean islands and Puerto Rico. After brushing the northern coast of Hispaniola IRENE’s winds reached its peak intensity of CAT 3 over the Bahama Islands. The main effect on North Florida and southeast Georgia was dangerous surf and rip currents, while northwest to north winds were hot and dry, causing record highs of 99 and 97 degrees on August 27 and 28.

Hurricane IRENE crossed North Carolina’s Outer Banks as a CAT 1 hurricane, brushed the Virginia-Maryland Delmarva area, then made its second U.S. landfall farther north at Little Egg Harbor, NJ. With hurricane warnings posted for New York City, the Big Apple shut down its mass transit system for the first time. As IRENE’s winds weakened to tropical storm strength, attention was shifted to the more widespread flood dangers from the tropical downpours. We’ve learned our lessons from years past that more people lose their lives from flood waters than hurricane winds. As the remnants of IRENE swept over New England, the worst floods since 1927 struck Vermont where more than 40 lives were lost.

The strongest hurricane of the 2011 season was KATIA, which fortunately missed the Leeward Islands and Bermuda. The remainder of this season brought five more hurricanes across the Atlantic Basin with the names stretching alphabetically from MARIA to RINA. The last named storm was SEAN, which only brushed Bermuda on November 11 and rapidly lost tropical characteristics as it was stretched northeastward by strong westerly winds.

Fortunately for me, there were no hurricanes affecting our area in September when I suffered a Cardiac Arrest on September 7 and was hospitalized for 3 weeks. You might have read my earlier recollections of Grady Norton, the Weather Bureau’s Senior Hurricane Forecaster, who was the forerunner of Directors Gordon Dunn, Neil Frank, Robert Simpson, Bob Sheets, and Max Mayfield. In 1954, Norton died of a heart attack after making predictions and radio broadcasts during hurricane HAZEL in 1954. That hurricane slammed hit Myrtle Beach, SC and continued across North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, and Pennsylvania to wind up in the interior of Canada.

Natural disasters like hurricanes make such an impact on our lives that they are used as timestamps when referring to days gone by. In recent years, Gulf coast residents talk about before KATRINA (2004). People in South Florida refer to when hurricane ANDREW (1992) hit, and people in the Carolinas still refer to hurricane HUGO (1989). In northeast Florida and southeast Georgia, there are still people who approach me talking about hurricane DORA (1964), the only full-force hurricane to directly strike our shore from the east 47 years ago.

At that time, I was the only full-time broadcast meteorologist hired by a television station in Jacksonville. Today, it is mind-boggling to try to name all of the TV meteorologists in our area, not to mention the Weather Channel, the National Weather Service, cable TV, and the military. I am indebted to the United States Air Force for giving my first schooling in meteorology, as well as the Meteorology Department at Florida State University where I received my BS degree. After five years with the U.S. Weather Bureau (now National Weather Service), I joined WJXT4, who has allowed me to advance the the public’s awareness of weather through time-lapse and storm photography, film animation, community outreach, and broadcasting for nearly 50 years.

Freeze Warnings are posted for parts of North Florida, while hurricane-force winds have subsided in Alaska.

The cold front that moved across our area yesterday and last night is now chasing tropical storm SEAN northeastward away from Bermuda. Clear, crisp autumn weather will dominate our area through the weekend.

Meanwhile, this week the west coast of Alaska has been struck by the worst blizzard in nearly 4 decades. This blast of Siberian cold has been especially brutal because it arrived while the north Bering Sea is still unfrozen. You may remember how ice was forming a month earlier than this on the north coast of Alaska in October 1988 when three California gray whales were being surrounded by ice that was forming around them.

It appears that the warming cycle in recent years over the Arctic has contributed to the longer duration of unfrozen waters. People frequently ask me what is happening to our weather. The freak snowstorm in the northeast U.S. in October has raised many questions.

In 1952-3, I became well acquainted with Alaskan blizzards when I spent a year in the Aleutian Islands at Shemya AFB. I took many pictures while at that island, called “The Black Pearl of the Pacific”. You may see them by Googling “George Winterling Shemya” or by opening the following:

http://www.hlswilliwaw.com/aleutians/Shemya/html/shemya_scrapbook-george-winterling.htm

The National Hurricane Center forecasts a 70% chance of a subtropical storm forming.

The damp northeast winds that blew in over the weekend will give way to warmer weather and partly sunny skies here, while a low pressure system in the Atlantic may grow into a subtropical storm by midweek. At 8 PM Monday, it was centered about 700 miles east of Vero Beach and 425 miles southwest of Bermuda. High pressure centered over the mid Atlantic states is blocking any significant movement other than a slight drift to the west or west northwest through Tuesday. Beginning Wednesday, the system will move on a northerly course in advance of a cold front that will bring our warming trend to a screeching halt Friday.

The front should kick the weakening low northeastward like a Friday night football away from the U.S. coast, while a cool, dry high pressure system from Texas will move across the southern U.S. over the weekend to provide us with crisp, autumn air which should help us enjoy all our outdoor weekend activities.

La Nina expected to shift south Florida rainfall from feast to famine.

Three rain episodes in October made less of an impact on the northern half of the state than to our neighbors downstate. Deep tropical moisture sheared from tropical storm RINA in combination with a slow moving cold front caused parts of central and south Florida to receive up to 4 times as much rainfall as the Jacksonville area. While our area averaged around 4 inches, Vero Beach, 200 miles to the south received 21.93 inches.

Other rain totals were 21.34 inches at Miami Beach, 17.14 inches at Key West, 16.47 inches at Ft. Pierce, and 15.23 inches at Ft. Lauderdale. These rains more than made up for the October deficit the previous year. October 2010 was the driest October ever in that part of the state.

For the second winter in a row, the Pacific La Nina will play a part on our weather.

La Nina conditions usually mean below average rainfall for Florida and the southern U.S. This is indeed bad news for Texas which has been plagued with wildfires and duststorms in 2011. Temperatures for our area average near or above normal; however, during the past two winters the Arctic Oscillation has injected periods of extreme cold. This year’s untimely October snowstorm in the northeast U.S. may lead some to believe we are in for another extremely cold winter. This may, or may not, be true. As far as this month is concerned, temperatures are expected to average warmer than normal.

The tropics have been quiet since RINA. I grow uneasy when November temperatures average warmer than normal. We had one of our warmest Novembers on record in 1985 when hurricane KATE moved westward from the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba in order to swing northward across the eastern Gulf into Apalachicola and Tallahassee. The storm moved across southern Georgia before dissipating off the coast of the Carolinas. We’ll continue watching the tropics since the hurricane season doesn’t end until November 30.

Wind shear "decapitates" RINA. Cold front clears our skies Saturday.

Cold front to clear our skies here and push remains of tropical storm RINA southward

RINA to become a weakening tropical storm over the northeast Yucatan peninsula.

By Monday, a stationary front may keep dissipating RINA near or over western Cuba. Keep checking with WJXT, JustWeather,com, and NHC advisories

A cold front moving into northern Florida Friday night will move downstate and become stationary over the Florida Keys. This should block RINA’s northward advance. The storm should weaken or dissipate by Monday as it interacts with the mountains of western Cuba.