LAST WEEK’S RAIN WATER DRAINING DOWN AREA RIVERS

Flood warning Santa FeRiver Stage Maccelnny

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jax

Flood crest at White Springs

 

HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD THREAT SHIFTS FARTHER NORTH

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AREA RAINFALL NOT AS BAD FOR FLORIDA AND SE GA AS EARLIER PREDICTED

Daytime downpours over Florida were not as heavy as expected. Although a few heavy showers may occur here Friday night, our 24-hr total by Saturday morning should be less than 2 inches. The 24-hr rainfall four-inch forecast has now shifted northward to coastal South Carolina.

SATURDAY AM UPDATE – Northeast Florida Friday/Friday night rainfall had less than one inch. Florida panhandle (Tallahassee westward) had two to three inches. Southeast Georgia had two to three inches (the heaviest was Brunswick with 3.12 inches).

 

CHILLY NOR’EASTER TO BRING FLOODING RAINS TO OUR AREA

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FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT RAINS TO CAUSE FLOODING FROM THREE TO FIVE INCH DOWNPOURS.

Low pressure from the Gulf, combined with a stationary front across the Florida peninsula, may cause rain totals to exceed to cause serious flooding to parts of south Georgia and northeast Florida by Saturday morning. As the low pressure center passes to the Atlantic coast Saturday, our rains will decrease during the day on Saturday.  Rising river levels along the Suwannee and St Marys, as well as Black Creek will be of serious concern to area residents. Coastal tides have been above normal due to the nor’easter which can restrict rain water in the St. Johns from draining into the Atlantic Ocean. The month of April which is climatologically our sunniest month of the year, but in some years rain waters draining into north Florida from south Georgia into the Suwannee, as well as north Florida rain water flowing into Santa Fe, cause water levels to rise to the flood stage when sunny skies return during the spring season.

 

 

 

 

FLORIDA WINTER RAINS ARE TYPICAL OF AN EL NINO

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JACKSONVILLE AREA RAINFALL TOTAL TO BE ABOUT ONE INCH ON SATURDAY.

The Climate Prediction Center reports that we are in the neutral phase of El Nino/La Nina, but our colder and wetter than average winter is what frequently occurs in an El Nino winter. The CPC says there’s a 50% chance of an El Nino developing by late summer. If that occurs, the hurricane season may have fewer storms than recent years.

Jacksonville’s rainfall since January 1 has been 13.54 inches with another inch predicted between Thursday and Sunday morning. The storm track most of this winter has been over the Gulf states and up the Atlantic seaboard, with a secondary track from the Midwest and Great Lakes region into eastern Canada. Incredible winter snowfall totals  have made 2014 a difficult winter for many of our neighbors to the north!

 

 

NHC TO MAKE CHANGES IN 2014 HURRICANE REPORTING

Potential Storm Surge Flooding

EXAMPLE OF POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS

The first map could be viewed at the issue of a Hurricane Watch. It is subject to be changed every 6 hours with the next full NHC advisory package. Due to processing time, it may not be available until about 45 to 60 minutes following the advisory release.

THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AND TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION WILL BE IN MIXED CASE, NOT ALL CAPS.

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A FIVE DAY TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BEGIN JULY 1.

THE INTENSITY PROBABILITY AND STORM CATEGORY TABLE WILL BE ELIMINATED.

2014 - Hurricane Intensity Probability Table

ON THE MAP, THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST CONE WHICH PORTRAYS THE CONE OF UNCERTAINY WILL BE SLIGHTLY SMALLER. THEY REPRESENT TWO-THIRDS OF HISTORICAL OFFICIAL FORECAST ERRORS DURING THE PREVIOUS FIVE YEARS.

2014 CONES

SPRING IS FINALLY HERE!

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No, this isn’t a Green-eyed Monster. It’s a look at the sun by NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center and Prediction Testbed. The sun was located directly over the Earth’s equator at 12:57 PM EDT today (Thursday March 20). This was the occurrence of our Vernal Equinox. Data from this image is used to determine Solar flares that can affect communication and create the Aurora over the earth’s Polar regions.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/documents/Ovation_Info.html

THE WORST OF WINTER IS BEHIND US!

Arctic Oscillation

In December 2013, Jacksonville had 8 days of 80 degrees or higher when the Arctic Oscillations were on the “warm” side. That month’s temperatures averaged nearly 5 degrees above the norm. The first Arctic to reach north Florida was on January 6 when a hard freeze sent temperatures into the low 20s and upper teens. Jacksonville had 8 freezes from January intrusions of the Polar Vortex that caused the month to average nearly 4 degrees colder than normal. The city had only one freezing day in February and none so far in March as the only effect of last week’s Arctic outbreak was only two cold overcast days that failed to climb above of the 40s.

The remainder of this month appears to be free of freezing temps in the Jacksonville area, but outlying places in southeast Georgia and the Suwannee Valley may have a few more freezing mornings between now and April 5.



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